This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

is well described by rolling window linear detrending, while Greenbook inflation forecasts can be closely replicated … using Bayesian model averaging over Autoregressive Distributed Lag models in inflation and the GDP growth rate. German and U ….S. Taylor rules are characterized by inflation coefficients increasing with the forecast horizon and a positive output gap …

disentangle the effects, we study the predictability of all variables in a simple model of monetary policy: inflation, the output …

The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement … about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on … forecasting horizons. Only the cyclical inflation disagreement has a significant impact on monetary policy efficacy. High …