Showing 1 - 10 of 41,227
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581927
only its applicability to arbitrary continuous distributions but also the evaluation of the forecast accuracy in specific …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115624
'encompassing'. Our test for conditional quantile forecast encompassing (CQFE) is a test of superior predictive ability, constructed … framework provides a basis for combining quantile forecasts, when neither forecast has superior predictive ability. A central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014113643
In this paper, we estimate, model and forecast Realized Range Volatility, a new realized measure and estimator of the … distribution for the innovations. The analysis of the forecast performance during the different periods suggests that including the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130487
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011731521
forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other approaches. In simulation experiments and an empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990919
conditional volatilities and correlations, the distribution for the innovations and the method of forecast construction. We find … smaller. The differences from the model, distribution and forecast choices are also smaller compared to temporal aggregation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105503
enables a Wald-type conditional quantile forecast encompassing test for any finite set of competing (semi …, fixed income and commodity trading desks. Forecast combination of both types of models is especially warranted for more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092448