This paper offers an approach to assess the quality of foresight knowledge deployed or generated during foresight exercises. Although 'foresight knowledge' is a special case, the idea of having a procedure, an approach or a method available for assessing the quality of knowledge is tempting:...

Do conflict processes exhibit repeating patterns over time? And if so, can we exploit the recurring shapes of the time series to forecast the evolution of conflict? Here we study escalation patterns using recent machine-learning methods derived from information geometry, clustering, and pattern...