Chapter 5 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments opens the second part of this book, in which I focus on geopolitical trends that might become important in the coming decade. To set the scene, Chapter 5 introduces my 10 rules of forecasting. Developed...

This analysis aims at developing forecasting models for both commodity volatility and commodity returns based on monthly data. I show that standard models of realized volatility are able to outperform both GARCH models and the random walk in terms of in-sample explanation power and out-of-sample...