This paper analyzes a setting in which a manufacturer (he) and a retailer (she) face uncertain demand, but the retailer has an information advantage in the form of a private demand forecast. Such information asymmetry causes the manufacturer to incur a hidden information cost. The results show...

This Article proceeds in six parts. Part I is an introduction to the issue of manipulation in political prediction markets. Part II offers a brief background to prediction markets generally. Part III catalogues five examples of activity considered manipulative in political prediction markets,...

To their credit, empirical legal scholars try to live up to the highest methodological standards from the social sciences. But these standards do not always match the legal research question. This paper focuses on normative legal argument based on empirical evidence. Whether there is a normative...

An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new adaptive importance sampling method for Quantile Estimation via Rapid Mixture of t approximations [QERMit]. As a first step the...