basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy … of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations …. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly …

of 2016 Presidential candidates using regressions that compare the general election contest and party nomination win … probability that Republicans will nominate a candidate who has little chance in the general election …

basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy … of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations …. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly …

) estimates of the party vote shares at the upcoming Bundestag election. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to … heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we do not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own … right. Instead, we use historical data to empirically assess the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and …

election. To ensure that raters did not recognize the candidates, we relied heavily on young subjects from Australia and New …

asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in …