This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory …-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters …

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behaviour of professional forecasters. The first theory …-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters …

. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the domestic country should be reflected in the expected export …

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than … differences are mainly explained by country-specific export compositions. A larger share in raw material or oil exports worsens … machinery goods. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast …

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … with country-specific export compositions. A larger share in raw material or oil exports worsens the accuracy of soft … indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast accuracy. …

branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that … indicators are superior: the Export Climate, the Production Expectations of domestic manufacturing firms, the Industrial … forecasters in order to choose the best-performing indicators and thus increasing the accuracy of export forecasts …

branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that … indicators are superior: the Export Climate, the Production Expectations of domestic manufacturing firms, the Industrial … forecasters in order to choose the best-performing indicators and thus increasing the accuracy of export forecasts. …