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We examine the impact of the unobservable systematic risk factor on default prediction model performance. We find that … including the unobservable systematic risk factor might help improve predictive accuracy, but it might not help improve rank … ordering of firms by default risk. Rank ordering is mainly driven by firm-level variables, while predictive accuracy is …
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This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative...
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provided in this paper means that the Z-Score models seem to have a very good potential in evaluating the risk of corporate …
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