Using trader-resolved data, we document lead-lag relationships between groups of investors in the foreign exchange market. Because these relationships are systematic and persistent, order flow is predictable from trader-resolved order flow. We thus propose a generic method to exploit trader...

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...

We define a sentiment indicator based on option prices, valuation ratios and interest rates. The indicator can be interpreted as a lower bound on the expected growth in fundamentals that a rational investor would have to perceive in order to be happy to hold the market. The lower bound was...