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Forecasting inflation via electronic markets : results from a prototype market
Berlemann, Michael - 2001
Forecasts of macroeconomic variables as the inflation rate serve as important guidelines for the private as well as the public sector. At least central banks that adopted an inflation targeting regime are in urgent need of high quality inflation forecasts. Accurate inflation forecasts are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010506648
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"Passauer Wahlbörse": information processing in a political market experiment
Beckmann, Klaus - In: Kyklos : international review for social sciences 49 (1996) 2, pp. 171-204
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001200534
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Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets : Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution
Jian, Lian - 2011
We conduct laboratory experiments on variants of market scoring rule prediction markets, under different information distribution patterns, in order to evaluate the efficiency and speed of information aggregation, as well as test recent theoretical results on manipulative behavior by traders. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122191
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Information Content in Sneer Asymmetry : An Application to OOS Implied Volatility Forecasting
Choi, Youngsoo - 2012
The ad hoc Black-Scholes (AHBS) model is one of the most widely used option valuation models among practitioners models. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We have two main results: (1) we make the empirical observation that typically the call and put sneers are discontinuous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097543
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Timing of Predictions in Dynamic Cheap Talk : Experts vs. Quacks
Smirnov, Aleksei - 2019
of privately known competence, who cares about his reputation, chooses the timing of the forecast regarding the outcome …. Further, any report hurts the forecaster's reputation in the short run, with later reports incurring larger penalties. The … reputation of a silent forecaster, on the other hand, gradually improves over time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859563
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A Copula Approach to Test Asymmetric Information with Applications to Predictive Modeling
Shi, Peng; Valdez, Emiliano A. - 2011
In this article, we provide an alternative evidence of asymmetric information in automobile insurance based on a copula model. We use the Frank’s copula to jointly model the type of policy coverage chosen and the number of accidents, with the dependence parameter providing for evidence of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014191732
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Predictive Policing : An Information Design Approach
Ichihashi, Shota - 2022
Citizens may engage in crime, depending on the probability of being searched and their types such as legal earning opportunities. Police observes information about citizens' types and allocates search efforts to catch citizens who commit crimes. I show that the police who has full information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076370
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Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective
Berlemann, Michael; Schmidt, Carsten - 2001
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305419
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Predictive accuracy of political stock markets : empirical evidence from an European perspective
Berlemann, Michael; Schmidt, Carsten - 2001
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010506652
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Predictive accuracy of political stock markets : empirical evidence from a European perspective
Berlemann, Michael; Schmidt, Carsten - 2001
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614879