S&P 500 index and the detection of End-of-Bubble signals with their corresponding confidence levels. We use monthly S …

variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information … contained in economic announcements. In this article, the authors develop a simple-to-read index of these announcements that … they then use to construct nowcasts. The index tracks whether key economic data have come in stronger, weaker, or as …

production (IP) in Germany. We obtain three sets of results. First, we show that the sentiment-based ifo index performs best in … predicting the general changes in IP (−0.596, range −1.0 to 1.0, −1.0 being best). The ZEW index is very close (−0.583). In third … place comes, somewhat unexpectedly, the behavioral-based unemployment index (−0.564), and last comes order flow, OF (−0 …