Der Beitrag liefert einen kurzen Überblick über alternative Methoden der Bestimmung von Konjunkturzyklen - die Ermittlung auf Grundlage vor-, gleich- und nachlaufender Zeitreihen gesamtwirtschaftlicher Variablen sowie die Zerlegung in Trend- und Zykluskomponenten mittels ökonometrischer...

Mit einem Markov-Switching-Modell können die monatlichen Veränderungen des ifo Geschäftsklimas in Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die beiden konjunkturellen Regime »Expansion« bzw. «Kontraktion« umgesetzt werden. Diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten – abgebildet in der ifo Konjunkturampel – liefern...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson's (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

We build a novel leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper is able to produce an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...

The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper in-troduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained...

We build a quasi real-time leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper gives rise to an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...