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Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle

Reif, Magnus - 2019

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Bluedorn, John C. - 2019

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467

News shocks : different effects in boom and recession?

Bolboaca, Maria; Fischer, Sarah - 2019 - This version: February, 2019

This paper investigates the nonlinearity in the effects of news shocks about technological innovations. In a maximally flexible logistic smooth transition vector autoregressive model, state-dependent effects of news shocks are identified based on medium-run restrictions. We propose a novel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011967392

Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

Hirose, Yasuo - 2020

empirical evidence that technology news shocks are a major source of fluctuations in U.S. output growth. Exploiting the forecast … contribution of technology news shocks to the fluctuations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847203

Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

Hirose, Yasuo; Kurozumi, Takushi - 2012

technology shocks are the most important driving force of U.S. business cycles. The use of the forecast data makes the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014173436

Time-varying effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy

Baumeister, Christiane; Peersman, Gert - 2012

We use vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate how the dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy have changed over time. We find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-eighties. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424731

Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods

Pirschel, Inske; Wolters, Maik H. - 2014

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating information, yet on different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010357899

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models

Wolters, Maik H. - 2013

This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792175

Real-time forecasts of the real price of oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009260180

Unusual shocks in our usual models

Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022

and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a … new shock process where the shock loads on wedges associated with the model's usual shocks. Realizations of the Covid … shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375147

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