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Statistical Prediction of the Outcome of a Noncooperative Game
Wolpert, David; Bono, James - 2009
Conventionally, game theory predicts that the joint mixed strategy of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy … strategies not satisfying it are assigned probability zero. As an alternative, we recast the prediction problem of game theory as … theory, on specifying a set of "equilibrium" mixed strategies, with a new focus, on specifying a probability density over all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216189
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An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms
Lambert, Nicolas; Langford, John; Vaughan, Jennifer Wortman - In: Journal of economic theory 156 (2015), pp. 389-416
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011528149
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Nichtkoordinierte Effekte horizontaler Zusammenschlüsse : wirtschaftstheoretische Grundlagen und Prognose durch Simulationsmodelle
Schwalbe, Ulrich - In: Recht und Wettbewerb : Festschrift für Rainer Bechtold …, (pp. 465-481). 2006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544122
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Predictive mind reading from first and second impressions : better-than-chance prediction of cooperative behavior
Schniter, Eric; Shields, Timothy W. - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014329893
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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
In this article, we study the point predictions that forecasters report when they are asked to predict the realisation of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the next realisation of random draws coming from different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
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Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human forecasters use various statistics to summarise their subjective expectations. In this paper, we take up the challenge and study whether alternative formulations of the questions used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
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Counterfactuals with Latent Information
Bergemann, Dirk - 2019
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892592
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Counterfactuals with Latent Information
Bergemann, Dirk - 2019
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model in which agents maximize expected utility given partial and differential information about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893994
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Robust Predictions under Finite Depth of Reasoning
Murayama, Kota - 2019
This paper studies a robustness of solutions in finite depth of reasoning models. The level-k and cognitive hierarchy models conventionally assume that each player has a commonly known anchor behavior to obtain a sharp prediction. We provide a general framework to examine whether the obtained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904836
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Predicting and Understanding Initial Play
Fudenberg, Drew - 2019
We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561