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research has not examined whether individual differences in insular sensitivity predict learning to avoid aversive stimuli. In … that in addition to correlating with self-reported anxiety, heightened insular sensitivity may promote learning to avoid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014191063
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490362
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011492072
We examine how analysts' anticipation of a management forecast affects their search for private information. Analysts are likely to acquire more private information because of the potential gains from trading on that information before a publicly disclosed management forecast. However, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031704
Thanks to the increasing availability of granular, yet high-dimensional, firm level data, machine learning (ML … learning (SL), the branch of ML dealing with the prediction of labelled outcomes, has been used to better predict firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823978
multi-period forecasting model that is estimated under both adaptive learning and rational expectations. Term structure … neglected in the adaptive learning literature. Relative to the rational expectations version, our estimated DSGE model under … adaptive learning largely improves the model fit to the data, which include not just macroeconomic data but also the yield …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928645
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014483192
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472883
We consider a cross-calibration test of predictions by multiple potential experts in a stochastic environment. This test checks whether each expert is calibrated conditional on the predictions made by other experts. We show that this test is good in the sense that a true expert - one informed of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012730968
Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902013