Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of...

Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods...

Can wars be forecasted? A central difficulty is that warnings of a looming war tomorrow are likely to affect behavior today. Whether decision-makers attempt to prevent its onset or to hasten it, the initial forecast will no longer hold. Predictable conflicts will therefore tend not to occur, and...

We have developed a quantitative indicator to predict if and when a series of protests in China, such as the one that began in Hong Kong in 2019, will be met with a Tiananmen-like crackdown. The indicator takes as input protest-related articles published in the People's Daily—the official...

Assume in a 2-person game that one player, Predictor (P), does not have a dominant strategy but can predict with probability p 1/2 the strategy choice of an opponent, Predictee (Q). Q chooses a strategy that maximizes her expected payoff, given that she knows p—but not P's prediction—and...