The model presented in this paper integrates two distinct components of the demand for durable goods: adoptions and replacements. The adoption of a new product is modeled as an innovation diffusion process, using price and population as exogenous variables. Adopters are expected to eventually...

In a situation where several hundred new music albums are released each month, producing sales forecasts in a reliable and consistent manner is a rather difficult and cumbersome task. The purpose of this study is to obtain sales forecasts for a new album before it is introduced. We develop a...

Unobserved heterogeneity in random utility choice models can be dealt with by specifying either a multinomial or a normal distribution of the coefficients, leading to finite mixture logit and mixed logit models. Focusing on the former, we show that individual-level estimates and predictions of...

Most election forecasting research to date has been conducted in the context of single-round elections. However, more than 40 countries in the world employ a two-stage process, where actual voting data are available between the first and the second rounds to help politicians understand their...

The authors discuss some shortcomings of probabilistic choice models which do not capture product interdependencies. When substitutional relationships are present in the marketplace, these models may lead to biased estimates for choice/market shares. A probabilistic choice model which accounts...