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Do Perceptions of Economic Well-Being Predict the Onset of War and Peace?
Swee, Eik - 2019
perception of economic well-being, possibly influenced by such tactics, predicts war and peace onset. Using unique data … bracketing the onset of the Nepalese Civil War, we find that higher levels of perceived income adequacy are associated with later … war onset during periods of rebel recruitment, and with earlier peace onset in general. These results hold regardless of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861302
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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The term structure of expectations
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2021
Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using the universe of professional survey forecasts for the United States, we document the behavior of the entire term structure of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660381
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A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566
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The misspecification of expectations in New Keynesian models : a DSGE-VAR approach
Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2016
This paper tests the ability of popular New Keynesian models, which are traditionally used to study monetary policy and business cycles, to match the data regarding a key channel for monetary transmission: the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic variables and their corresponding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011541080
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A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452269
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Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?
Ibrahim, Adamu - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 301-315
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473533
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The term structure of expectations and bond yields
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel - 2016
How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of professional forecasters covering more than 500 survey-horizon...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349
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Are consumer expectations theory-consistent? : the role of macroeconomic determinants and central bank communication
Dräger, Lena (contributor); Lamla, Michael (contributor);  … - 2014
Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts, namely the Phillips curve, the Taylor rule and the Income Fisher equation. We observe that 50% of the surveyed population have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425155
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Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792