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the future shock realizations. In 1998Q4-2002Q4, the two year constant interest rate projections turn out immodest when …
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The lower bound on interest rates has restricted the impact of conventional monetary policies over recent years and could continue to do so in the near future, with the decline in natural real rates not predicted to reverse any time soon. A binding lower bound on interest rates has consequences...
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In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...
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applications where market expectations play a key role for evaluating economic models, guiding policy analysis, and deriving shock …
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industrialized and developing economies after the 2008 recession. However, the direction of shock spillovers during recessions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911318