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Are constant interest rate forecasts modest interventions? : evidence from an estimated open economy DSGE model of the Euro Area

Adolfson, Malin; Laséen, Stefan; Lindé, Jesper; … - 2005

the future shock realizations. In 1998Q4-2002Q4, the two year constant interest rate projections turn out immodest when …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583556

Forecast Uncertainty in the Neighborhood of the Effective Lower Bound : How Much Asymmetry Should We Expect?

Binning, Andrew - 2016

The lower bound on interest rates has restricted the impact of conventional monetary policies over recent years and could continue to do so in the near future, with the decline in natural real rates not predicted to reverse any time soon. A binding lower bound on interest rates has consequences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981201

Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management

Akram, Q. Farooq - 2016

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989353