Sell-side fundamental analyst reports are highly valued in the financial industry and include three main quantitative components: earnings forecasts, target prices, and buy/sell recommendations. An important question for investment managers is then, how accurate are the forecasts of fundamental...

Over the past 12 years, financial analysts across the world have been optimistically wrong with their 12-month earnings forecasts by 25.3%. This study may be the first of its kind to assess analyst earnings forecast accuracy at all listed companies across the globe, covering 70 countries. A...

This paper provides a new set of tests on the relationship between product market competition, information processing cost, and production of information by managers. The recent regulation regarding the mandatory adoption of XBRL (eXtensible Business Reporting Language) is a natural experiment...

We estimate the effect of information and ability spillovers on sell-side analysts' quarterly EPS forecast accuracy. Using a model that relates mean peer group ability along with the analyst's own ability to the analyst's forecast accuracy, we find that spillovers from peer analysts are large,...

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative channel of uncertainty - data uncertainty. This paper adds on...

Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...

We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific...

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major real macroeconomic Euro area variables, published by...

This study investigates whether analysts strategically construct their portfolios along the supply chain. We document four major findings. First, the likelihood of an analyst following a firm's major customer increases with the strength of the economic tie along the supply chain, as measured by...

This paper compares the behavior of subject' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also...