Similar Search Results

Partially unforeseen events : corrections and correcting formulae for forecasts

Charin, Aleksandr A. - In: Expert journal of economics 2 (2014) 2, pp. 69-79

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057407

Out-of-Sample Predictions of CPT and Geometric Dispersion Theory of Descriptive Choice Under Risk, Empirical Testbeds, Paradoxes, and Risk Triad

Malakooti, Behnam - 2020

-of-sample predictability. To accurately predict risk, we develop Geometric Dispersion Theory (GDT), which is based on two asymmetric simple …Out-of-sample prediction is the ultimate validity test of risk models for which theoretical appeal and justifications … are irrelevant to the prediction results. Empirically, we show that all prominent risk models including Cumulative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014113373

Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs

He, Xue-zhong; Treich, Nicolas - In: Journal of mathematical economics 70 (2017), pp. 105-114

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011828937

The well-meaning economist

Gorajek, Adam - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262771

On the exact solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for an exponential utility under return predictability

Bodnar, Taras; Parolya, Nestor; Schmid, Wolfgang - In: European journal of operational research : EJOR 246 (2015) 2, pp. 528-542

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011338116

What do prediction markets predict?

Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W. - In: Applied economics letters 18 (2011) 1/3, pp. 267-272

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009230964

Forecasting security returns : the use of heterogeneous expectations

Abraham, Rebecca; Harrington, Charles W. - In: Advances in business and management forecasting 4 (2006), pp. 93-115

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003751340

Forecast evaluation in the presence of unobserved volatility

Christodoulakis, George A.; Satchell, Stephen - In: Econometric reviews 23 (2004) 3, pp. 175-198

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002263007

Counterfactuals with Latent Information

Bergemann, Dirk - 2019

We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and diﬀerential information...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892592

Counterfactuals with Latent Information

Bergemann, Dirk - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893994

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last