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We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010365211
We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899669
We observe that daily highs and lows of stock prices do not diverge over time and, hence, adopt the cointegration concept and the related vector error correction model (VECM) to model the daily high, the daily low, and the associated daily range data. The in-sample results attest the importance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012707381
This study provides evidence of the US implied volatility's effect on international equity markets' returns. This … evidence has two main implications: i) investors may find that foreign equity returns adjusting to US implied volatility may … not provide true diversification benefits, and ii) foreign equity returns may be predicted using US implied volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945079
This paper investigates the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability specified on two global financial … volatility forecasting measures on future stock returns in four different periods (bear and bull markets). First we find clear … and robust empirical evidence that the implied idiosyncratic volatility is the best stock return predictor for every sub …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999962
In this paper we examine the pricing of volatility risk using SPX corridor implied volatility. We decompose model …-free total implied volatility into various components using different segments of the cross section of out-of-the money put and … call option prices. We find that only model-free volatility computed from the cross section of out-of-the-money call option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087088
paper investigates the impact of EPU on the crude oil return volatility and which EPU index has the most forecasting power … the crude oil return volatility, but the effect is short-lived and the decay period is about one year. Particularly, our … results show that the US EPU index has the best forecasting power for crude oil return volatility over the long-term, whereas …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012040309
forecasting horizons. Therefore, a long memory volatility model compared to a short memory GARCH model does not appear to improve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910119
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013164208