Over the last decades the tourism sector has played an increasingly important role in the socio-economic development of Portugal. We analyze data from the last fifty years from Portugal, comparing non-pandemic forecasts derived with ARIMA time series models for the triennium 2020-2022, that is,...

This paper argues that forecast estimators should minimise the loss function in a statistical, rather than deterministic, way. We introduce two new elements into the classical econometric analysis: a subjective guess on the variable to be forecasted and a probability reflecting the confidence...

This study examines the out-of-sample predictability of expected skewness of oil price returns, which serves as a metric for global future risks, as we show statistically through the association with crises of different nature, for stock returns of 10 (8 advanced plus two emerging) countries...