We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to poverty using cross-sectional data and panel … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and … high mobility. -- vulnerability ; poverty ; ROC ; German panel data …

OLS models are the predominant choice for poverty predictions in a variety of contexts such as proxy-means tests …, poverty mapping or cross-survey imputations. This paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in … predicting poverty using alternative objective functions and stochastic dominance analysis based on coverage curves. It finds …