We study sovereign default risk as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads of Eurozone member states between 2008 and 2016. Applying a structural credit risk model we analyze to what extent contingent claims analysis can explain spreads given fundamental balance sheet information. First...

We analyze the term structure of illiquidity premiums as the difference between the yield curves of two major bond segments that are both government guaranteed but differ in their liquidity. We show that its characteristics strongly depend on the economic situation. In crisis times, illiquidity...

Can the credit spreads of one and the same issuer differ in two different currencies? If so, can an investor exploit this situation? To answer these questions and to add to the existing literature, we extend the Jarrow/Turnbull model with a second currency and test these theoretical results with...

In this paper we use Merton's (1976) model for pricing options when the underlying asset is driven by a mixed diffusion-jump process to compute the monthly default probabilities of a bond issuer whose income is uncertain with high volatility in tax collection. In particular, the case of a...

We analyze the term structure of illiquidity premiums as the difference between the yield curves of two major bond segments that are both government guaranteed but differ in their liquidity. We show that its characteristics strongly depend on the economic situation. In crisis times, illiquidity...

German government bonds are very popular among investors because of their liquidity and safety, and they are also widely used in repo transactions as collateral. During the recent financial crisis the excess demand for German securities pushed their yields below the theoretical risk-free rate....

We explore the dynamics of the adjusted swap spread (calculated as the difference between the swap rate and sovereign yields over the credit default swap premium) in the Eurozone market by studying three markets simultaneously: 1) sovereign bonds, 2) credit default swaps (CDS), and 3) swap...

This paper is about market liquidity risk premia in Eurozone sovereign bond spreads between 2008 and 2015. By calibrating an arbitrage-free reduced form model to the cash- and derivatives markets of each member state, we disentangle credit and market liquidity spread components in government...

In this study, we focus on the dynamic properties of the risk-neutral liquidity risk premium specific to the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets. We show that liquidity risk has a non-trivial role and participates directly to the variation over time of the term structure of...

This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the term structure of sovereign spreads and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which accounts for more than 50% of the J. P. Morgan EMBIG index. The real exchange rate dynamics, modeled as a pure...