This paper investigates the impact of the time-varying elasticity of the cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) and fiscal consolidation on government debt. The time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is used on a time series of data from 1979 to 2022. The...

This paper discusses the rationale and options for a fiscal anchor for South Africa and its potential for restoring and maintaining fiscal sustainability. It argues that a well designed fiscal anchor can be useful in the current fiscal milieu, but notes that the popularity of fiscal rules belies...

"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...