"This volume collects the Working Papers prepared by William R. Cline and issued by Economics International, Inc., in 2018 through 2021. Chapter 1 argues that US median incomes have grown faster than generally recognized. Chapter 2 provides new estimates of US job losses from the China Shock to...

This paper introduces a new probabilistic approach to sovereign debt projections and presents new estimates of debt ratios through 2020 for Italy and Spain. The new approach takes account of likely correlations across 243 alternative scenarios with three states (good, baseline, bad) for five key...

This paper applies the probabilistic debt sustainability model developed for the euro area in Cline (2012, 2014) to sovereign debt in the United States and Japan. The results indicate that to avoid further increases in the expected ratio of public debt to GDP over the next decade, average annual...