Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...

Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low-debt states, resulting...

This paper analyses the challenges that high public debt and ageing populations pose to medium-term growth. First, macroeconometric model simulations suggest that medium-term growth can benefit from credible fiscal consolidation, partly through reductions in sovereign risk premia. Second, a...

The paper examines the role of fiscal and monetary policy on the dynamics of monetary expansion in a macroeconomy. Its microeconomic structure defined by producers with neoclassical production functions, heterogeneous OLG consumers, and a stationary fiscal and monetary policy induces a...

We derive the quantitative implications of reducing sustained budget deficits (labeled fiscal stabilizations) in the context of a general equilibrium model of innovation-led growth. In the model, innovation comes from entrant firms creating new products and incumbent firms improving own existing...

This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...

The debate over legal requirements of a balanced federal budget has gained new life. A requirement would have strong implications for future fiscal policy. Done right, a requirement will allow Congress to combine a balanced budget with policy goals such as growth and full employment. Done wrong,...

All explorations of the future of the Euro show serious risks for its survival in the present form. The road map of the Five EU Presidents presented in 2015 is far from sufficient to reduce the risks of the Euro zone falling apart by Brexit type developments or new economic shocks. The EU...

The fiscal consolidation efforts of Spain, Italy, and Portugal from 2010 to 2014 did not achieve their goal of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio in any of the three countries. This Economic Bulletin examines why the spending cuts and tax increases, at times drastic, were unsuccessful and...

This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...