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In this paper we empirically explore the relationship between debt and output in a panel of 72 countries over the period 1970-2014 using a vector autoregression (VAR). We document two puzzling empirical findings that contrast with what is predicted by a standard small open economy model by...
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Episodes of high inflation are generally accompanied by a shortening of the maturity of nominal debt contracts. This … and the maturity structure of nominal bonds. The model shows that under the presence of a small risk of price … a negative relationship between inflation and maturity. The paper shows evidence of this negative correlation from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134991
We examine the welfare effects of bailouts in economies exposed to sovereign default risk. When a government of a small open economy requests a bailout from an international financial institution, it receives a non-defaultable loan of size G that comes with imposed debt limits. The government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160653
This paper extends the baseline framework used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default by assuming that the government can borrow using long-duration bonds. This contrasts with previous studies, which assume the government can borrow using bonds that mature after one quarter. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096677
This study develops a novel model of endogenous sovereign debt maturity choice that rationalizes various stylized facts … about debt maturity and the yield spread curve: first, sovereign debt duration and maturity generally exceed one year, and …, output volatility, sudden stops, impatience and risk aversion are key determinants of maturity, both in our model and in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088092
Empirical evidence shows that sovereign defaults are associated with significant downturns in economic activity in defaulting countries. However, the existing literature on sovereign debt and default mainly analyzes endowment economies and, therefore, does not address the relationship between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009705418
The complexity of the Cyprus crisis makes answering the question of the title difficult, while the policy implications make the question important. However, the answer to this question unavoidably points the finger to those responsible, and as a result the quest for an answer is clouted by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031535
In 1998, following some 10 years of structural reforms that began during the late Soviet era under the Perestroika processes and continued after the collapse of the USSR, Russia has recorded its first year of economic growth. Then, with virtually no advanced warning, by the of August 1998,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112330