This paper studies the impact of the state-dependent risk of a government default on the correlation of the scal balance and current account. We use a small open economy model where nonlinear risk premia arise endogenously when the government operates close to its scal limit, i.e. the maximum...

In this paper, we investigate the importance of aggregate fluctuations for the assessment of the optimal level of public debt in an incomplete-markets economy. We start by building a steady state model in which households are only subject to un-insurable idiosyncratic risk and evaluate the...

The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires...

This paper analyzes recent macroeconomic developments in the eurozone, particularly in Germany. Several economic indicators are sending signals of a looming German recession. Geopolitical tensions caused by trade disputes between the United States and China, plus the risk of a disorderly Brexit,...

A frequently neglected aspect of financial booms and busts - financial cycles - is their impact on fiscal positions. And yet, the latest financial crisis and history show that these cycles can wreak havoc with public finances. After reviewing the impact of financial cycles on fiscal positions,...

This paper provides background information and basic descriptive statistics for a representative survey of the German population conducted on our behalf by GfK in the first quarter of 2013. The survey addresses important topics in fiscal policy, including: 1) public preferences on the...

This paper presents a comprehensive framework examining fiscal sustainabil- ity in developing economies. It integrates public capital, labor informality, and global liquidity shocks in a two-sector DSGE model for a small open economy, revealing their intricate interplay and nonlinear impact on...

The study examines the long run relationship and interconnections between public debt and domestic investment in 13 West African countries from 1986-2018. Using panel Panel Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Panel Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), debt (% of GDP) and external debt have an...

In order to enhance fiscal sustainability and regain 'investment grade' credit rating, in 2011 Colombia implemented a fiscal rule (FR) on the Central Government's structural balance. Investment grade was rapidly attained, and FR targets were complied with, until 2019. Using the Synthetic Control...

Economics literature suggests that, even in the absence of fiscal costs, a persistently high and increasing public debt ratio may have a detrimental effect on long run economic growth in an economy that is not over-accumulating capital like Finland today. High public debt creates expectations...