In this report, we examine the long-run fiscal pressures that an independent Scotland may face, how these would differ from those facing the UK, and the size of the fiscal consolidation that may be required to put Scotland's public finances on a sustainable path. We do this using a model of the...

This working paper describes how the IFS's model of the UK's long-run public finances (and those of its constituent nations) is constructed. Our model projects tax revenues, public spending and hence public borrowing and debt up to 2062-63. This is done for the UK as a whole and also separately...

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will announce his second Budget, and fourth fiscal event, on Wednesday 6 March. This will possibly be the final fiscal event of the current parliament. With the big rise in tax revenues as a share of national income since 2019 only being partially offset by the cuts to...

The UK finds itself in an unfortunate economic and fiscal bind. Living standards have endured an unprecedentedly long stagnation. Taxes are at record levels for the UK (though remain lowto-middling by European standards). Public services are showing visible signs of strain and are, in many...

This report makes the case for a new review of the pension system in the UK. There are a number of key challenges facing future generations of pensioners that threaten their living standards in retirement and which, without policy action, mean many are likely to face substantial financial...

Chancellors don't respond symmetrically to good and bad economic news. This represents a risk to the accuracy of official borrowing forecasts.

The reason why both earnings growth and inflation matter for the state pension is the pensions 'triple lock'. In place since 2011 (except for a one-year temporary suspension in 2022), under the triple lock the state pension rises in line with the highest of CPI inflation, average earnings growth...