Judgement based forecasts are widely used in practice either alone or in conjunction with computer prepared forecasts. This study empirically examines the improvement in accuracy which can be gained from combining judgemental forecasts, either with other judgemental or with quantitatively...

Ungeachtet der vielfältigen Anstrengungen hat sich die Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen seit den 1970er Jahren nicht verbessert. Deshalb mahnen (manche) Ökonomen "mehr Wettbewerb" unter den Prognoseinstituten an – und hoffen, dass die allokative Effizienz marktlicher Lösungen auch...

This paper compares the performance of three alternative models in forecasting housing supply in the Irish Republic. The results highlight key behavioural issues in the dynamics of housing supply that the OLS and VAR models fail to adequately capture due to the inclusion of fundamental variables...

We investigated the performance of value-at-risk (VaR) models of KOSPI 200 sector indices using FIGARCH and FIAPARCH models under normal and skewed Student-t innovation distributions. The FIAPARCH model well captured the long-memory and asymmetry properties of the volatility. In addition, the...

This paper compares the accuracy of the Consensus forecasts for euro-area GDP growth, consumer and producer price inflation, and the USD/EUR exchange rate to those of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund, and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and also to the...

In this document we use the Expectations Survey conducted monthly by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of October 2003 - August 2012. We find that exchange rate revaluations were generally followed by expectations of further revaluation in the short run (1 month), but by...

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of VAR and ARIMA models to forecast Austrian HICP inflation. Additionally, we investigate whether disaggregate modelling of five subcomponents of inflation is superior to specifications of headline HICP inflation. Our modelling procedure...

This study investigates the use of two different types of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Feed-Forward (FF) Neural Network and Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network, in forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the three major currencies: the...

In this document we use the Expectations Survey conducted monthly by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of October 2003 – August 2012. We find that exchange rate revaluations were generally followed by expectations of further revaluation in the short run (1 month), but by...

This paper discusses a large-scale factor model for the German economy. Following the recent literature, a data set of 121 time series is used via principal component analysis to determine the factors, which enter a dynamic model for German GDP. The model is compared with alternative univariate...