The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded-good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are...

The BPCG model provides an interesting hypothesis regarding economic growth. The main implication is that world demand places a constraint on individual country performance. I discuss this implication and argue that tests of the BPCG model have essentially been tests of the hypothesis that trade...

The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...

The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are...

This chapter is structured in three parts. The first part outlines the methodological steps, involving both theoretical and empirical work, for assessing whether an observed allocation of resources across countries is efficient. The second part applies the methodology to the long-run allocation...

This paper studies whether intra-developing country price competition has significant effects on the short-run growth of output in developing countries that are specialised in manufactured exports. Regression estimates using the generalised method of moments applied to annual panel data for 17...

The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while...

We examine the effect of changes in international competitiveness on labour productivity growth through three channels: (i) export, (ii) import, and (iii) import competition. Using micro data from the Irish manufacturing over the period 1995-2002, we account for firms' heterogeneity in their...

This study examines the drivers of growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using aggregate data, from the past decade. We correlate recent growth experience to key determinants of growth, including private and public investment, government consumption, the exchange regime and real exchange...

Generating sustained growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most pressing challenges in global development. As the region needs foreign assistance to jump start its development, foreign aid becomes crucial. However, aid booms can also lead to exchange rate overvaluation curtailing exports...