How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon...

This paper presents new stylized facts about exchange rates and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals. We show that macroeconomic surprises explain a large majority of the variation in nominal exchange rate changes at a quarterly frequency. Using a novel present value decomposition...

This paper presents new stylized facts about exchange rates and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals. We show that macroeconomic surprises explain a large majority of the variation in nominal exchange rate changes at a quarterly frequency. Using a novel present value decomposition...

The first part of this paper briefly summarizes the assumptions of economic theory on the relationships between exchange rates, prices and interest rates and the same time compares these assumptions with the empirical evidence. The fact that there exist strong discrepancies, which in recent...

Using an improved statistical methodology including tests designed for heterogeneous panels, this paper tests for mean reversion in monthly US Dollar based real exchange rates for nine East Asian countries, including those that were severely affected by the 1997 Asian financial crises. The...

This paper revisits the empirical evidence of purchasing power parity under the current float by recursive mean adjustment (RMA) proposed by So and Shin (1999). We first report superior power of the RMA-based unit root test in finite samples relative to the conventional augmented Dickey–Fuller...

Empirical tests of purchasing power parity (PPP) are implicitly based on the conditions of symmetry and proportionality of the price coefficients. We investigate a separate condition, which we term homogeneity. Specifically, while there may be factors that drive a wedge between prices and...

We adapt the Casselian version of purchasing power parity to a two-period framework. In this framework, we show that inter-temporal trade plays a role and can drive a wedge betweenthe nominal exchange rate and relative prices. The size of trade flows, the real interest rate, and the constraint...

Assuming that asset markets are complete and arbitrage-free, the exchange rate can be expressed in terms of observables in a multicountry, multigood general equilibrium economy. In contrast to existing models of the exchange rate, this general model allows for international differences in...

In this article, we re-examine the empirical validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory for the Turkish economy. For this purpose, an empirical model is constructed using some contemporaneous estimation techniques such as multivariate co-integration and vector error correction...