This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method. The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a...

Ensemble prediction systems aim to account for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. Ensemble forecasting is sometimes viewed as a method of obtaining (objective) probabilistic forecasts. How is one to judge the quality of an ensemble at forecasting a system? The probability that...

The relationship between short-term exposure to air pollution and mortality or morbidity has been the subject of much recent research, in which the standard method of analysis uses Poisson linear or additive models. In this paper, we use a Bayesian dynamic generalised linear model (DGLM) to...

Decision trees are hierarchical, sequential classification structures that recursively partition the set of observations (data) and are used to represent rules underlying the observations. This article describes the development of TreeWorks, a tool that enhances existing decision tree theory and...

This paper describes the development and application of a simulation tool for modelling patient choice in healthcare systems. Patient choice is already offered in the English National Health Service (NHS) and proposed reforms will propel choice to the forefront of NHS re-structuring by offering...

We consider the estimation of the location of the pole and memory parameter, λ0 and α respectively, of covariance stationary linear processes whose spectral density function f(λ) satisfies f(λ) ∼ C|λ − λ0|−α in a neighbourhood of λ0. We define a consistent estimator of λ0 and...

Consumers are often confronted with choices between options that vary in their short and long term benefit, or what we call immediate and delayed utility. This paper describes the marketing implications of what economists and psychologists have learned about how consumers make these choices. The...

An optimal investment problem is solved for an insider who has access to noisy information related to a future stock price, but who does not know the stock price drift. The drift is filtered from a combination of price observations and the privileged information, fusing a partial information...

Firms often delegate important decisions to committees which are set up specifically for that purpose; for example selection committees. We analyze the equilibrium behavior of a game in which committee members (the players) interview candidates sequentially, either hiring or going on to the next...

Asymptotic inference in nonlinear vector error correction models (VECM) that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is nonstandard and complicated. This paper contributes the literature in several important ways. First, we establish the consistency of the least squares estimator of the...