This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method. The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a...

We propose a class of models in which the η-problem of supersymmetric hybrid inflation is resolved using a Heisenberg symmetry, where the associated modulus field is stabilized and made heavy with the help of the large vacuum energy during inflation without any fine-tuning. The proposed class...

Stratifying and matching by the propensity score are increasingly popular approaches to deal with confounding in medical studies investigating effects of a treatment or exposure. A more traditional alternative technique is the direct adjustment for confounding in regression models. This paper...

A common approach to analysing clinical trials with multiple outcomes is to control the probability for the trial as a whole of making at least one incorrect positive finding under any configuration of true and false null hypotheses. Popular approaches are to use Bonferroni corrections or...

The aim of this paper is to discuss the use of Bayesian methods in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and the common ground between Bayesian and traditional frequentist approaches. A further aim is to explore the use of the net benefit statistic and its advantages over the incremental...