Accurately estimating the winning probabilities of participants in competitive events, such as elections and sports events, represents a challenge to standard forecasting frameworks such as regression or classification. They are not designed for modelling the competitive element, whereby a...

In this paper we propose a locally interactive model which explains both the cross sectional dynamics as well as the possibility of multiple long run equilibria. Firms can choose between two technologies say 1 and 0; the returns from technology 1 are affected by the number of neighboring firms...

We present a new, full multivariate framework for modelling the evolution of conditional correlation between financial asset returns. Our approach assumes that a vector of asset returns is shocked by a vector innovation process the covariance matrix of which is timedependent. We then employ an...

We apply duality methods of linear and convex programming to the problems of operation and rental valuation of facilities for conversion and storage of cyclically priced goods, e.g. , energy. Both problems are approached by shadow-pricing the stock (which is a purely intermediate commodity); and...

The analysis of repeated surveys can be approached using model-based inference, utilising the methods of time series analysis. On a long run of repeated surveys it should then be possible to enhance the estimation of a survey parameter. However, many repeated surveys that are suited to this...