This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method. The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a...

Operational weather forecasts now allow two week probabilistic forecasts of wave height. This paper discusses methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System. The ECMWF system produces...

We propose a class of models in which the η-problem of supersymmetric hybrid inflation is resolved using a Heisenberg symmetry, where the associated modulus field is stabilized and made heavy with the help of the large vacuum energy during inflation without any fine-tuning. The proposed class...