The first part of this paper considers the cognition of individuals ans groups of individuals in the context of organisational project risk analysis and management, and attempts to characterise a set of models of cognition which may be of value as conceptual tools for risk analysts and managers....

Proposals and recommendations have been made in a number of reports in an attempt to encourage firms to adopt of "best practice", as identified by the Group of Thirty, through public disclosure requirements and rules for determining the amount of regulatory capital to support trading and...

This paper describes an approach to assessing the technical performance of a candidate system by means of comparison to a reference system of known performance characteristics.

We examine the statistical determinants of transfer risk using probit estimation and an estensive data set of over 300 sovereign ratings given by the leading rating agencies between 1992-1997.

This paper provides an introduction to a form of financial innovation which is the relatively recent phenomenon of asset backed securisation (ABS). An overview of the related issues and importance of this trend towards asset backed securisation in the UK by financial institutions is provided....

This paper discusses the use of dynamic modelling in consumer credit risk assessment. It surveys the approaches and objectives of behavioural scoring, customer scoring and profit scoring. It then investigates how Markov chain stochastic processes can be used to model the dynamics of the...

In this paper we develop the case for the creation of a single financial supervisory and regulatory authority for the Russian Federation. This case is based on three criteria: (a) it enables economies of scope to be exploite (b) it ensures regulatory parity (c) it satisfies prudential logic.

This paper presents the first systematic analysis of the determinants of local currency sovereign ratings and uses ordered probit estimation. We find no signifiant quantitative impact for the best theoretical indicators of local currency creditworthiness, the fiscal balance and the rate of...