The paper investigates the pricing of derivative securities with calendar-time maturities.

We instillate rational cognition and learning in "seemingly riskless" choices and judgments. Preferences and possibilities are given in a stochastic sense and based on revisable expectations. The theory predicts experimental preference reversals and passes a sharp econometric test of the status...

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product.