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This paper assesses information contained in the micro dataset of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters regarding quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of information and confirm the presence of information...
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Home price expectations are believed to play an important role in housing dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of how they are formed and how they affect behavior. Using a unique "information experiment" embedded in an online survey, this paper investigates how consumers' home price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547755
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
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We develop a model of firm learning in volatile markets with noisy signals and test its predictions using historical German data. Firms' forecasts improve with age. We exploit German Reunification as a natural experiment where firms in the East are treated with ignorance about the distribution...
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Inflation expectations are a key variable in conducting monetary policy. However, these expectations are generally unobservable and only certain proxy variables exist, such as surveys on inflation expectations. This paper offers guidance on the appropriate quantification of household inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010495242