This paper suggests term spread regression based tests allowing for time-varying term premium effects, with the aim of explaining the empirical failures of the term spread to forecast future movements in interest rates. To capture the e¤ects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread,...

Contrary to the predictions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, empirical evidence suggests that the term spread between long and short rates fails to forecast future movements of long term rates although its forecasts of future short term rates are...