The canonical inflation specification in sticky-price rational expectations models (the new-Keynesian Phillips curve) is often criticized for failing to account for the dependence of inflation on its own lags. In response, many studies employ a “hybrid” specification in which inflation...

This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behavior of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas...

Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on staggered price contracts with rational expectations can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This article presents some general...

In recent years, a broad academic consensus has arisen that favors using rational expectations sticky-price models to capture inflation dynamics. We review the principal conclusions of this literature concerning: (1) the ability of these models to fit the data; (2) the importance of rational...

xi, 87 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number.

Inflation expectations have been of great interest to economists because they predict how agents in an economy set prices and react to changes in various macroeconomic variables. The existence of Keynesian liquidity traps in Japan and the United States have helped emphasize the importance of...

The relationship between asset demand and information quality in rational expectations economies is analyzed. First we derive a number of new summary descriptive statistics that measure four basic characteristics of investment style: asset selection, market timing, aggressiveness, and...

One of the most influential tests of the expectations hypothesis is Mankiw and Miron (1986), who found that the spread between the long-term and short-term rates provided predictive power for the short-term rate before the Fed's founding but not after. They suggested that the failure of the...

An estimation of a life cycle cum rational expectations model that allows for uncertain future interest rates. The results show that the model is strongly rejected using post World War II U.S. data.

In light of research questioning the usefulness of economists' models of exchange-rate determination, this paper investigates the rationality of survey measures of expectations for Deutschmark/dollar exchange rates for 1989-97. Using Liu and Maddala's (1992) "restricted cointegration" test, the...