This paper analyses the effects of productivity shocks on the current and future terms of trade and on output in a two country framework. An overlapping-generations model is used in which individuals allocate their savings between domestic and foreign capital assets according to their...

This paper presents a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination intended to address the forward premium puzzle. It also explains the empirical observation that risk premiums depend on interest differentials. The model's closed-form solution indicates that currency risk premiums depend on...

This paper examines whether rational, fully informed speculators will smooth exchange rates. Friedman's (1953) claim that they must do so is challenged, based on the exclusion of interest rate differentials from his interpretation of speculator behavior. Once one recognizes that interest rates...

This paper examines whether rational, fully informed speculators stabilize floating exchange rates. Friedman's claim that they must do so (1953), because they buy low and sell high, is challenged. Friedman excluded any consideration of interest rate differentials from his interpretation of...

This paper examines whether rational, fully informed speculators will smooth exchange rates. Friedman's (1953) claim that they must do so is challenged, based on the exclusion of interest rate differentials from his interpretation of speculator behavior. Once one recognizes that interest rates...

This paper analyses the effects of productivity shocks on the current and future terms of trade and on output in a two country framework. An overlapping-generations model is used in which individuals allocate their savings between domestic and foreign capital assets according to their...