The decisions of firms on investment and hiring play a crucial role in business cycle fluctuations. This paper explores their dynamic behavior in the presence of frictions. It does so within a unified framework, stressing their mutual dependence and placing the emphasis on their joint,...

An accurate global projection algorithm is critical for quantifying the basic moments of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Log linearization under- states the mean and volatility of unemployment, but overstates the volatility of labor market tightness and the magnitude of the...

In many professional labor markets the number of new workers follows a cyclical time path. This phenomenon is usually explained by means of a cobweb model that is based on the assumptions of myopic wage expectations and occupational immobility. Since both assumptions are questioned by the...

The standard search and matching model with rational expectations is well known to be unable to generate amplification in unemployment and vacancies. We document a new feature it is unable to replicate: properties of survey forecasts of unemployment in the near term. We present a parsimonious...

In this paper we test the Rational Expectations hypothesis using longitudinal data on expectations and realizations of individual welfare for East Germans in the years following reunification. German reunification was unexpected and delivered a large shock to the future prospects of the...

The recent weakness in business investment among advanced economies has revived interest in investment models and opened a debate on the main drivers of the "investment slump" and what the policy response should be – if any. In particular, it is essential to assess precisely whether the...

In cointegrated vector autoregressive models exact linear rational expectation relations can imply restrictions on the adjustment parameters. We show how such restrictions can be tested, in particular when the restrictions imply weak exogeneity of some variables

In this paper we test the Rational Expectations hypothesis using longitudinal data on expectations and realizations of individual welfare for East Germans in the years following reunification. German reunification was unexpected and delivered a large shock to the future prospects of the...

Most empirical studies on liquidity constraints classify a consumer as being constrained on the basis of a single indicator such as the asset to income ratio. In this analysis, we model the probability that a consumer faces liquidity constraints as a function of multiple social and economic...