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Near-Rational Expectation : How Far Surveys from Rationality

Ivashchenko, Sergey - 2014

New simple forms of deviation from rational expectation (RE) are suggested: strong near rational expectation (SNRE) and weak near rational expectation (WNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model is estimated with the RE, the SNRE and the WNRE. It is estimated with and without observed from the surveys...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039738

Near-rational expectations : how far are surveys from rationality?

Ivashchenko, Sergey; Gupta, Rangan - 2017

New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: temporary near-rational expectations (TNRE) and persistent near-rational expectations (PNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model was estimated with the RE, the TNRE and the PNRE. It was estimated with and without observations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011785054

Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations

Li, Zigang; Nieuwerburgh, Stijn van; Wang, Renxuan - 2023

-run mean can generate forecast bias, a response of forecasts to lagged realizations, sluggish response of forecasts to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349291

Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data : New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros - 2020

Using a novel data set that combines firms' qualitative survey-based sales forecasts with their quantitative balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors (those in the two tails of the distribution) are predictable and display auto-correlation. This result is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830815

Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data : New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros - 2020

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839767

Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792

Individual Rationality and Learning : Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification

Frijters, Paul; Haisken-DeNew, John P.; Shields, Michael - 2021

" experiment through which to study the rationality of expectations. Our results show that East Germans significantly over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320528

Are Professional Forecasters Rational? Evidence for Brazilian Dataset

de Prince, Diogo - 2020

fluctuation rationality test of Rossi and Sekhposyan (2016). We obtain that there is bias in inflation forecasts in the easing and … not affect the rationality test with panel data. The consensus forecast seems to neutralize the bias of individual …We test forecast rationality for Brazilian inflation using Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for each month. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840588

Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts

Laster, David Scott; Bennett, Paul; Geoum, In Sun - 1997

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000982517

Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

Laster, David Scott; Bennett, Paul B.; Geoum, In Suk - 2007

This paper develops a model of macroeconomic forecasting in which the wages firms pay their forecasters are a function of their accuracy as well as the publicity they generate for their employers by being correct. In the resulting Nash equilibrium, forecasters with identical models, information,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014049781