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Near-Rational Expectation : How Far Surveys from Rationality
Ivashchenko, Sergey - 2014
New simple forms of deviation from rational expectation (RE) are suggested: strong near rational expectation (SNRE) and weak near rational expectation (WNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model is estimated with the RE, the SNRE and the WNRE. It is estimated with and without observed from the surveys...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039738
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Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations
Li, Zigang; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Renxuan, Wang - 2023
-run mean can generate forecast bias, a response of forecasts to lagged realizations, sluggish response of forecasts to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349291
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Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792
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Equilibrium Counterfactuals
Chemla, Gilles - 2019
exogenous) "counterfactuals." Estimation bias occurs since the economy's actual agents, in contrast to model agents, understand … policy changes are positive probability endogenous events guided by the modellers. We characterize equilibrium bias …. Depending on technologies, downward, upward, or sign bias occurs. Potential bias magnitudes are illustrated by calibrating the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866124
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Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations
Murphy, Robert G. - 2016
This paper argues that individuals may rationally weight price increases for food and energy products differently from their expenditure shares when forming expectations about price inflation. We develop a simple dynamic model of the economy with gradual price adjustment in the core sector and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006057
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Equilibrium counterfactuals
Chemla, Gilles; Hennessy, Christopher A. - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207349
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Rational inattention in hiring decisions
Acharya, Sushant; Wee, Shu Lin - 2019
We provide an information-based theory of matching efficiency fluctuations. Rationally inattentive firms have limited capacity to process information and cannot perfectly identify suitable applicants. During recessions, higher losses from hiring unsuitable workers cause firms to be more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975476
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Spatial and temporal aggregation in racial profiling
Ilić, Dragan - In: Swiss journal of economics and statistics 149 (2013) 1, pp. 27-56
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009733289
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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2024
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084332
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Anchoring in economics : on Frey and Gallus on the aggregation of behavioural anomalies
Earl, Peter E. - 2014
This paper examines the research area identified by Frey and Gallus (Aggregate Effects of Behavioral Anomalies: A New Research Area, 2014) and the relationship between it and the choices that economists make. It supports the Frey and Gallus view that, as a consequence of individuals employing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407517