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Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7
Dovern, Jonas; Weisser, Johannes - 2009
In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness, and the efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not been analyzed in the literature so far. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267119
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Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries
Dovern, Jonas; Weisser, Johannes - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008
In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the rationality of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze both … used with caution, since even if all individual forecasts are rational the hypothesis of rationality is often rejected by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818809
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Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7
Dovern, Jonas; Weisser, Johannes - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009
In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness, and the efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not been analyzed in the literature so far. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008509228
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Near-Rational Expectation : How Far Surveys from Rationality
Ivashchenko, Sergey - 2014
New simple forms of deviation from rational expectation (RE) are suggested: strong near rational expectation (SNRE) and weak near rational expectation (WNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model is estimated with the RE, the SNRE and the WNRE. It is estimated with and without observed from the surveys...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039738
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Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations
Li, Zigang; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Renxuan, Wang - 2023
-run mean can generate forecast bias, a response of forecasts to lagged realizations, sluggish response of forecasts to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349291
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Quantifying qualitative survey data : new insights on the (ir)rationality of firms' forecasts
Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellarēs, … - 2020
Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174792
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Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Clements, Michael P - Department of Economics, University of Warwick - 2006
We ask whether the different types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368758
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Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts
Clements, Michael P. - Department of Economics, University of Warwick - 2008
A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of inflation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005146900
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Equilibrium Counterfactuals
Chemla, Gilles - 2019
exogenous) "counterfactuals." Estimation bias occurs since the economy's actual agents, in contrast to model agents, understand … policy changes are positive probability endogenous events guided by the modellers. We characterize equilibrium bias …. Depending on technologies, downward, upward, or sign bias occurs. Potential bias magnitudes are illustrated by calibrating the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866124
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Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations
Murphy, Robert G. - 2016
This paper argues that individuals may rationally weight price increases for food and energy products differently from their expenditure shares when forming expectations about price inflation. We develop a simple dynamic model of the economy with gradual price adjustment in the core sector and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006057