How far do China’s property prices need to drop in order to send the country into a recession? What does this question tell us about the way Bubble Economies work? In this paper, we develop a theory of Bubble Economics - non-linear and often "systemic" (in the mathematical sense of the word)...

How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behaviour as measured in a rich home-scanner dataset. In the...

Housing is the greatest asset held by most households, and it is an important determinant of their financing and consumption decisions. Despite the fact that measuring housing wealth is crucial for understanding households' economic behavior, this indicator is currently unavailable in Mexico due...

The most frequent mortgage loans in the US behave according to nominal interest rates with level loan payments (NRMs), like Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRMs) or Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs). We use a model to show that the tilt effect, an increase of real payments in the early years of the...

We use a model and show how inflation and mortgage loans based on nominal interest rates (NRMs), like FRMs, ARMs or IOs, are a source of instability for housing markets. NRMs allocate risk inappropriately and cause economic tensions due to the tilt effect (Lessard and Modigliani, 1975), the...

This paper documents uniformity in real estate commission rates offered to buyers' agents using 653,475 residential listings in eastern Massachusetts from 1998–2011. Properties listed with lower commission rates experience less favorable transaction outcomes: they are 5 percent less likely to...

This article provides the in-sample estimation and evaluates the out-of-sample conditional mean and volatility forecast performance of the conventional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) and...

In January-April 2014, 231,100 apartments with floorspace of 17.9m sq. meters which amounts to 127% on the respective period of 2013. In Q1 2014, the average actual cost of building of 1 sq. meter of residential housing rose by 12.52% as compared to Q1 2013 and amounted to Rb 39,290. The ratio...

In January–October 2013, entities of all the forms of ownership built 566,800 apartments with floorspace of 45.4m sq. m which is equal to 113.3% on the respective period of 2012. In 2013, the correlation between the price of housing and households' income points to higher affordability of...

This paper investigates the development of house prices in Copenhagen in the period 1994-2013, while paying special attention to the heterogeneous impact of the boom and bust periods along the dimensions of housing type (single vs multifamily housing), geography and quality. To allow for price...