This paper investigates how changes to the age distribution of cities' resident popu-lations shape the growth rate of local house prices in different market segments. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with de-tailed housing price data for 87 German cities...

We show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We explain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House...

I propose a new model, conditional quantile regression (CQR), that generates density forecasts consistent with a specific view of the future evolution of some variables. This addresses a shortcoming of existing quantile regression-based models, for example the at-risk framework popularised by...

This paper investigates the long-run relationships between the size and age composition of a city's population and the price of local housing. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with housing price data for 87 cities in Germany over the period 1995-2012....

This paper investigates the long-run relationships between the size and age composition of a city's population and the price of local housing. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with housing price data for 87 cities in Germany over the period 1995-2012....

How does a shrinking population affect the housing market? In this study, drawing on Japan's experience, we find that there exists an asymmetric relationship between housing prices and population change. Due to the durability of housing structures, the decline in housing prices associated with...

Exploiting regional heterogeneity in population dynamics across more than 10,000 municipalities in Germany, we provide robust empirical evidence that population aging depresses real estate prices and rents. Using millions of individual real estate offers and detailed demographic data on the...

Even though economic models have been relatively successful in explaining the long run patterns of house prices, they have more difficulties in explaining short run developments of the housing markets. However, the fact that during such ‘bubbles’ the spatial pattern of house prices, which...

During 1992-2007, house price growth is strongly correlated with local entrepreneurship. We show with Census Bureau data that most of this entry is related to construction and real estate; these entrants tend to be small and short-lived. Using a 1998 Texas reform that allowed home equity lending...

Since the beginnings of the eighties house prices in the Netherlands haveincreased steadily and considerably. In this paper we study the effect of this developmenton the demand for second mortgages and on the savings of Dutch households. We use the dataof the Dutch socio-economic panel for the...