To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have...

This paper separates the roles of demand for housing services and belief about future house prices in a house price cycle, by utilizing a feature of user-cost-of-housing that it is sensitive to demand for housing services only. Optimality conditions of producing housing services determine...

Conventional wisdom holds that one of the riskiest aspects of owning a house is the uncertainty surrounding its sale price, especially if one moves to another housing market. However, households who sell a house typically buy another house, whose purchase price is also uncertain. We show that...

We show that the hedging benefit of owning a home reduces the variability of housing consumption after a move. When a current home owner's house price covaries positively with housing costs in a future city, changes in the future cost of housing are offset by commensurate changes in wealth...

We use a model and show how inflation and mortgage loans based on nominal interest rates (NRMs), like FRMs, ARMs or IOs, are a source of instability for housing markets. NRMs allocate risk inappropriately and cause economic tensions due to the tilt effect (Lessard and Modigliani, 1975), the...

Using a unique set of quarterly residential real estate price data for 12 major Chinese cities during the period from 1999 to 2010, this paper employs both relative measures and well-specified regression models to examine the impact of key fundamental factors on home prices. Our empirical...

This paper explores the potential for the housing market to inform public policy in Ireland by developing a model of the determinants of the cost of accommodation. It does this by using a rich dataset of sales and lettings accommodation costs in Ireland over the period 2006-2010. A large...

We explore the impact of different types of supply constraints on house prices in England by exploiting a unique panel dataset of 353 local planning authorities ranging from 1974 to 2008. Using exogenous variation from a policy reform, vote shares and historical density to identify the...

This paper introduces series of house and land prices for Australia's major capital cities for the period 1880-1970 which, spliced to modern data, give series spanning 1880-2010. The broad trends in prices for houses, land and rents highlight no significant movement in real prices for the first...

We investigate whether recently high U.S. house prices are justified by fundamental factors. The standard unit root and cointegration tests with aggregate data indicate that house rent is the only fundamental which has the same order of integration as the price, but these two variables are not...